Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
